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Collection: Warren Buffett - #202 'Ignores Predictions'


Video Link: https://youtu.be/cRhSoEnb-60


In this episode, Warren Buffett shared his thoughts on predictions and why he ignores it?


In this episode, you’ll learn:

  • Warren Buffett thoughts on predictions.

  • Why Warren Buffett ignores predictions?

To check out all Collection: Warren Buffett <click here>

[Transcript]

(Source: https://buffett.cnbc.com/2000-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/)

~ Please visit the site above for full video of Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.

WARREN BUFFETT 00:08

And I would say this: in terms of the predictions, and I know the spirit in which you asked the question, but in terms — there’s a market out there all the time.


And people love to hear predictions. If I said I was going to offer a bunch of predictions today, we would have a million people here. I mean, they’re dying to have predictions and speeches at rotary clubs or trade associations or whatever. That’s — they just plain love it.


And that’s what a whole industry is built upon, you know, the people coming out of Washington to talk about political predictions and the — I don’t read those in the paper at all. Because it’s just — it’s space fillers, basically.


And, you mentioned Edgar Cayce. Ben Graham knew Edgar Cayce pretty well. But I just have never seen any utility to any of that at all.


There will be some huge surprises in the world. There’s no question about that. But I don’t think that betting on any specific one is a very smart policy.


In fact, our — we usually bet against them, in terms of super catastrophes. We know there will be a 7.0 or greater quake in California in the next 50 years. We don’t know where it’ll be or when it’ll be or anything like that. We are willing to pay out a lot of money if it happens tomorrow.


And because people do worry about catastrophes. And in this case, it’s perfectly proper, with insured values. But it just isn’t any way, in our view, to get through economic life.


Charlie?


CHARLIE MUNGER 01:42

Well, I suppose the one time when a single mother might want to own gold compared to anything else is if she faced conditions like a Jew in Vienna in 1939, or —


I mean, there are conditions you can imagine where some form of transportable wealth would be useful, compared to anything else.


But absent those extreme conditions, I think it’s for the birds. Now, silver… (Laughter)


WARREN BUFFETT 02:25

It’s hard to think of anything other than fleeing the country. And Charlie and I don’t give a lot of thought to fleeing the country.


Although, I must say that the one thing I really find reprehensible is the people that make a lot of money in this country and then leave to, you know, to get another tax jurisdiction or something like this. I really — I don’t —


But I’m a little crazy. I don’t mind paying taxes. (Applause) Let’s go to 7.


There are plenty of reasons, I think, perfectly valid reasons — I mean, people may want to live someplace else — but the ones who carefully arrange it so that they actually live here as much as they can.


I think one of them wanted to be appointed — he wanted to go to some very small entity, where there was no tax. And then he wanted to be appointed an ambassador to the United States, so that he could enjoy living here but enjoy the taxes of something else.


And, you know, that is not my role model. Yup.

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